I have blogged several times over the past few months to suggest that the UK’s CO2 emissions are rising not falling (see e.g. http://rupertread.org/rupertread.org/wordpress/?p=1549 and especially http://rupertread.org/rupertread.org/wordpress/?p=1616 ). Now, sadly, it appears that there is strong academic confirmation of what I have been saying:
UK carbon emissions risen not fallen – new paper:
A paper has just been published by Angela Druckman et al of Surrey University (Druckman A, Bradley P, Papathanasopoulou E, Jackson T. (2007) ‘Measuring progress towards carbon reduction in the UK’, latest issue of Ecological Economics).
The paper shows that that the accounting convention chosen for reporting carbon emissions radically changes the conclusions that may be drawn about UK’s progress towards its carbon reduction targets. According to the UNFCCC reporting convention, carbon emissions fell by 5.6% between 1990 (the Kyoto base year) and 2004. However if calculations are based on figures produced in the UK Environmental Accounts, which additionally account for aviation and shipping emissions (excluded from the UNFCCC convention), the picture is less clear. On this basis, progress towards the Kyoto target appears to be almost wiped out, with carbon emissions having risen by 0.3% over the time period. More significantly, when emissions are estimated according to the consumption perspective, (which the report authors take to be the more appropriate approach), it appears that emissions have risen by 8% over the same time span.